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The NFL Week 4 lines are out and this is the week of the local underdogs. The reason we take note of this is that one of our proven winning formulas is about betting on local underdogs in the right circumstances. Home underdogs have covered nearly 60 percent over the last 10 years and there are plenty of games this week that fit this scenario. We see several of these games where he will cover the local underdog. We’ve given you our first impressions of these games below and will finalize our picks for our subscribers later in the week.
Ravens (-4.5) VS. BROWNS: Cleveland is a homedog who was also in Week 2 when they covered and won against the Bengals. The Ravens couldn’t cover after being up on Sunday against Arizona, but their defense is the kind that gives young QBs like Anderson trouble.
Bears (-3) VS. LIONS: Why the Bears are favored here are the questions, as this team has some major flaws to deal with, particularly the ineffectiveness of quarterback Rex Grossman. The Lions were destroyed last week against Philly and that’s the kind of loss that can shake a team’s confidence. The underdog home scenario is at work here.
JEANS (-11) VS. Rams: There is no team other than the Saints that has been the biggest disappointment in the NFL as the Rams have shown no life this season and will now lose RB Steven Jackson to this injury. 11 is a lot of points and the Cowboys may disappoint here after such a big win last Sunday on the road against the Bears.
Packers (-2) VS. VIKINGS: Suspicious play here, as the Vikings should be down 7 points against the 3-0 Packers. This game reminds us of the Browns-Bengals game in week 2. However, the Packers are so hot they should be able to handle them here. Another local underdog here.
Texans (-3) VS. FALCONS: Another home loser scenario here, as the Falcons played well last week with the same setup but couldn’t cover against Carolina. The Texans pressed like house dogs last week against the Colts on a wild line as some covered Indy when they started at -5.5 (we won at that number picking the Colts), while some pressed at -6, and some even won with Houston when the line hit -6.5 on Sunday morning.
COLTS (-9.5) VS. Broncos: Well here, as the Colts take on the Broncos. Denver was shocked by Jacksonville at home last week and things could quickly get worse with another loss. Expect better performance from them in this game. The Colts, on the other hand, have destroyed Denver over the years, including two playoff wins.
DOLPHINS (-3.5) VS. Raiders: Two bad teams meet in Miami with the dreaded 3.5 spread.
Jets (-3.5) VS. BILLS: The Bills will go with backup quarterback Trent Edwards as JP Losman will miss a few weeks with injury. The Jets did well at home beating Miami last week and things could be turning around after a rocky start to the season.
Eagles (-3) VS. GIANTS: The Giants are the home underdogs in prime time against an Eagles team that put up a ridiculous offensive performance last week.
Steelers (-5.5) VS. CARDINALS: The Steelers are 3-0 ATS so far this year and are heading into dessert to face a Cardinals team that will likely go with backup QB Kurt Warner, which could give them a boost.
CHARGERS (-12) VS. Chiefs: The Chargers are playing poorly as they are now 1-2 after a tough road loss against Green Bay. The Chiefs got on the board last week against the Vikings, but this team can’t score anything. Both RBs in this one (LT and L. Johnson) have struggled.
Seahawks (-1.5) VS. 49ERS: The 49ers are the home underdogs here as they face a Seahawks team coming off an impressive inning over the Bengals. 49ers RB Frank Gore went wild in Seattle in both games last year.
Patriots (-7) VS. BENGALS: Another local underdog and this one is on MNF when the Bengals take on the Patriots.